The State of the Nation: It's Looking Grim

I won’t lie to you, 2009 is going to be a grim year for Wales if the seasonal missives of our political leaders are anything to go by.

“I cannot say when the economic upturn will come”, First Minister Rhodri Morgan said in his Christmas address to the nation. “I can only tell you that it will.”

When interviewed in the Western Mail on Boxing Day, he said of the economic downturn, “It’s an enormous test for devolution, a much bigger test than foot and mouth was. People just don’t realise what was done to try to keep the normality of life going in foot and mouth. That was what we thought of as a real test – were we capable? Animal health wasn’t devolved to us, but we had to pretend it was, because that’s what the people of Wales expected.”

There are pressing reasons why the de facto Prime Minister of Wales seems to be suggesting that the big test now facing Welsh devolution is whether the Assembly Government is capable of pretending control of the economy has been devolved and whether the Welsh people will be sufficiently mollified by the pretence. The Welsh economy appears to rapidly contracting and devolution has stalled.

The de facto Governor of Wales, Secretary of State Paul Murphy, who has the power to veto any Assembly Government request with which he or his Westminster colleagues on the Welsh Affairs Select Committee take issue – indeed, as he recently did with a request to abolish the right of tenants to buy council houses - also offered cold comfort in his New Year message to the people.

“I want to reassure you that the Government will be continuing to work in partnership with the Welsh Assembly to ensure 2009 is as happy and prosperous a new year as possible for you and your families”, says Murphy. However, “the Government’s priority at the moment must be financial stability... there’s no silver bullet”.

Having concluded that there is nothing specific that can be done for the Welsh economy until Gordon Brown has fixed the global financial system, Morgan and Murphy both prattle on about our rugby team winning the Six Nations, again, Joe Calzaghe beating all comers, again, Only Men Aloud winning Last Choir Standing and Duffy being Top of the Pops, not forgetting Gavin and Stacey and Dr Who, our top TV ‘exports’. Murphy even wants us to celebrate that “a young girl from my own Torfaen constituency became the first Welsh winner of Big Brother”. Be thankful for small mercies, is it?

Unlike England and Scotland, Wales hasn’t needed to have its banks bailed out by the British taxpayer because it doesn’t have any banks. That’s why money invested in Wales simply trickles away.

Not that there’s any spare money to put in a bank. Data released by the Office For National Statistics last week showed that Welsh workers are the lowest paid in the UK, the average full-time salary being £25,677, compared to £46,462 in London.

Whilst the calculation method preferred by the Westminster Government suggests Welsh unemployment is only marginally higher than the UK average – now approximately 7% - more than 12% of the entire Welsh population of working age is claiming incapacity benefit. Put another way, Wales has less than 3% of the population of Britain but more than 10% of all incapacity benefit claimants.

Wales was already an economic basket case before the downturn. Add incapacity benefit claimants to job seekers allowance claimants to the long-term unemployed in areas such as Blaenau Gwent or Merthyr Tydfil and you find that the majority of adults are economically inactive. In reality, many women have unskilled or semi-skilled jobs that barely keep their families going, whilst older men particularly, those with no hope of ever finding job, often sit in the pub all day drinking away their benefit payment.

Is it any wonder that so many young people in Wales use drugs to dull the feeling of hopelessness, or that some go so far as to commit suicide? Others, of course, just sit around all day strumming guitars. That’s why so many good bands come out of the Valleys. There’s nothing else to do.

People in Wales are not refusing to work. There is not enough work to go around, and what jobs there are generally so poorly paid that there’s no incentive to do them. Creating new employment in Wales, given the overriding priorities of City of London-centric government policy, is a tough task for the Welsh political elite, whereas privatising the responsibility for benefit claimants represents an easy option that might help to appease the middle-England voters Labour thinks it needs if it is to cling to power.

The UK Government White Paper on Welfare Reform, introduced just before Christmas, which is intended to force benefit claimants to prepare for work or face losing payments, a proposal strongly endorsed by the Labour backbencher Peter Hain whose own Neath constituency is particularly blighted by such unfortunates, illustrates just how out of touch Westminster politicians are with these aspects of the Welsh experience and why Wales probably needs a far greater degree of devolution if it is ever to thrive.

The All Wales Convention, a commission chaired by former UN ambassador Sir Emyr Jones-Parry and charged with determining whether Wales wants its Assembly to have lawmaking powers ahead of a referendum, is not due to report its findings until the end of 2009. Yet the de facto President of Wales, the former-nationalist Presiding Officer, Lord Dafydd Elis-Thomas, thinks he already knows the answer. He argued in the Western Mail against holding a referendum on additional powers for the Assembly before 2011 because, “We have to move forward with the clear substantial consent of the Welsh people. There is no point in having governance which is not supported by a plurality-plus majority.”

Plaid Cymru MP, Adam Price, suggested in a separate article that the referendum question should be phrased so voters are asked to compare Wales with Scotland. “The question would be something like, ‘Do you think the National Assembly should be granted lawmaking powers similar to the Scottish Parliament?’” he proposed, as if this would help people better understand what was wanted from them.

As Lord Elis-Thomas presumably anticipates, the public’s poor perception of politicians and the unrepresentative nature of the Welsh political system might reduce the turnout to the embarrassing point where a vote in favour would not be sufficiently conclusive to confer consent. The options offered by the political establishment at the moment are whether we want more of the same, or not. The status quo is not up for review.

Confidence in the political process has been eroded by scandals such as that involving Peter Hain, who infamously failed to declare donations of £103,000 to his deputy leadership campaign, much of which came from an organisation that might be interpreted as having been established to disguise the true identity of Hain’s donors.

Allegations of impropriety are not limited to Labour politicians either. Welsh Conservative leader Nick Bourne is currently fighting for his political life after spending £229 of public money on an iPod, £119 on a trouser press and £5,003 on improving his bathroom.

At a time when ordinary people in Wales are being encouraged to tighten their belts, AMs voted themselves an inflation-busting 8.3% pay rise to take their salaries before allowances and expenses to £50,692 - twice the Welsh national average - in return for taking limited responsibility for affairs of state.

Thus, devolution appears to be in as sorry a state as the Welsh economy. So, what to do?

Even in adversity, Assembly Members might be considered worth their remuneration packages were they to use their existing powers courageously and imaginatively to tackle the worst effects of the recession. For instance, the lack of an indigenous banking system and the economic drain of Welsh benefit payments on the UK Treasury might together create the opportunity Wales needs to turn its fortunes around.

The Assembly could establish effective control of the Welsh economy and go some way towards resolving the endemic issues of poverty and economic inactivity, without recourse to Westminster, if it were to sponsor the introduction of a ‘national’ negative interest complimentary currency in which every Welsh resident, business and local authority automatically became a stakeholder.

Complimentary currency, as the name suggests, is a means of exchange intended to work alongside, rather than instead of, legal tender - in this case, the Pound. Such a currency, let’s call it ‘Uned Cymru’ or the ‘Unit of Wales’ or ‘Uned’ for simplicity’s sake, would be accepted in exchange for goods and services only within the borders of Wales in order to stop it flowing out of the country.

The Uned would be electronic and operate via a card account that would be administered by a service organisation with local outlets, the Post Office perhaps. Operating costs would be met by users paying a monthly fee, technically known as ‘demurrage’ or ‘negative interest’, based on a percentage of the Uned value moving into and held in each account.

Negative interest is an important attribute that discourages hording. Users would be likely to spend their ‘Unedau’ before it decreases in value. This would cause the currency to circulate at a much faster velocity than convention legal tender so that a Uned would create economic activity worth many times its face value. Rapid velocity in circulation will help to counter the lack of liquidity in the Welsh economy and would encourage economic activity where it is currently either sluggish or non-existent. Negative interest currency would also have the effect of countering both deflationary and inflationary effects in the mainstream economy and would, therefore, promote economic stability.

If users were able to pay for all their essential requirements - food, housing, utilities, clothing, furniture, entertainment, local taxes such as council tax and court fines - in Unedau as well as in pounds, then it would be possible to switch benefit payments from pounds to Unedau. The Whitehall treasury would lose some tax revenue but it would save billions in benefit payments.

Introduction of a Welsh currency would result in environmental benefits such as reducing carbon emissions produced by the transport of imported goods. It would also give Welsh businesses a competitive edge since it would allow for a proportion of costs to be paid in Unedau whilst sales are made in conventional legal tender.

Having fired the silver bullet in which the Secretary of State does not believe, the Assembly might then turn its attention to winning public support for devolution. A straightforward offer to establish a gathering of ordinary people selected on a nationally representative basis and expected to serve the nation in a similar manner to jury service, approving by majority vote all proposed legislation and expenditure, should be enough to swing a vote in favour.

Whether or not the Assembly applies ideas like these in 2009, at least we can be thankful for the small mercies that Paul Murphy and whoever replaces Rhodri Morgan as First Minister are likely to trumpet in next year’s New Year messages.

We might all be out of a job but our rugby team will win the Six Nations, Joe Calzaghe will beat all-comers, a Welsh singer will be Top of the Pops at some stage in the year, and the forthcoming series of Gavin and Stacey and Dr Who will be the critical success we always knew they would be. I can’t wait.

Blwyddwyn Newydd Dda!

Something is rotten in the state of Cymru

For the benefit of the Welsh Diaspora who may not know it, elections to the Welsh Assembly take place tomorrow. All the indicators suggest that the vast majority of the Welsh electorate will deliver an unequivocal vote of no confidence in the Assembly by not voting.

Whoever claims victory tomorrow night will be a liar. This will not be a victory; it will be a disaster for democracy. The politicians will choose to represent it as mere voter apathy; under Labour, their argument goes, the economy is booming, obviously. People who have never had it so good feel little compulsion to vote because they’re content.

I maintain that the reality is rather different. Some people may indeed have more money in their Gucci handbags but even they know that something is very wrong with our society and its value systems.

Buying something new and shiny may bring momentary happiness. It may also make the stress of modern life seem worthwhile - for a while - but just like smoking a cigarette brings relief from the nicotine addiction for a only matter of minutes, the pleasure soon wears off. Reality is a credit card bill, an unmanageable mortgage, poor education and inadequate healthcare, overflowing prisons, antisocial behaviour, global warming and a state of perpetual war with Islam.

The majority of the electorate know, to varying degrees of certainty that things have to change. Yet they are powerless to effect any real change themselves and the electoral system imposed upon them by politicians intent only on perpetuating their own interests, offers no opportunity for change. That’s why most people in Wales won’t vote tomorrow. It’s been made a pointless exercise.

There is no substance to the elections, just negative propaganda and gerrymandering. The political parties need not concern themselves with democratic legitimacy since the system within which they operate has been constructed to maintain the status quo.

They have discovered that all they need to do is buy off one section of the electorate while ensuring that we all live in fear, and the English-centric media is a willing collaborator in this deception since nothing sells media better than fear.

So, we have no means to change what we know needs changing. Does that mean we’re stuffed? I don’t think so. I’m going to start by voting for an independent tomorrow.

For the future, I have started, with others who want change, to formulate an alternative political proposal. I maintain that the sole purpose of the Assembly should be to secure and improve the lives of the people it represents.

Westminster is a level of government we don’t need. All available evidence suggests it would be impossible to effect real change in Wales with the conflicting interests of England weighing down upon us. For one thing, the Labour party can’t cling to power in Westminster without Wales because England is a deeply Conservative country, despite Labour’s ‘economic miracle’.

Wales is a small place. There are less than 3 million of us. Small countries with small populations are more manageable and so tend to have a higher standard of living and a better quality of life. Look at the Scandinavian countries, for example. There is no reason why we can’t strive for those fundamental values in Wales. Let’s have a plan ready for the next election.

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Politics has eaten itself

Rhodri Morgan reminds me of the character Zaphod Beeblebrox in Douglas Adams’ The Hitchhiker’s Guide to the Galaxy. Beeblebrox becomes President of the Galaxy, a role that involves no power whatsoever, but merely requires the incumbent to attract attention so no one wonders who's really in charge. That would seem to sum up Rhodri’s position rather well.

Irregardless of the outcome of this week’s elections, the resolutely middle class Labour leadership in London will still be in charge in Wales, exercising its control over and above local party level, imagining a world formed in its own likeness.

If, as seems likely, the vast majority of the electorate demonstrates its disenchantment with the party political system by simply not voting on Thursday, the politicians will choose to ignore the serious political message it actually represents and will just carry on squabbling amongst themselves in the way they did before before the election.

This is not democracy. True democracy is dead in Wales because politics has eaten itself. The Assembly will have no legitimacy because it will not be representative of the wishes of the people and, sadly, this would still be the case if most of the electorate were to vote.

In elections to the Welsh Assembly, we each have two votes. We cast the first for the candidate we want to be the Assembly Member for our community and the second for a political party or independent.

If our candidate wins, our first vote is effectively deemed to be for that candidate’s political party. If our candidate loses, we might as well not have bothered voting since we will not be represented unless we cast our second vote for one of the parties from whose ‘top-up’ lists ‘additional members’ are appointed. Additional members are deemed to represent constituencies used prior to 1999 in European elections. Well, that all makes perfect sense, doesn’t it? No?

Applying the d’Hont system to the second vote results in those parties that fail to contest more than half the seats having no right to additional members. Additional members are there to correct proportional imbalances caused by the vagaries of the first past the post system. The whole setup assumes, you see, that we vote for party political dogma rather than for individual people.

Now, even though the majority of us are still likely to have voted against it, the party with the most assembly members is presumed to have a legitimate mandate to form a government. It has the right to select a First Minister even though he might not have won the majority of the vote in his own constituency, let alone in the country.

Who would come up with such an unrepresentative, undemocratic system, and why does it work in such an illogical manner? Surely the Westminster government wouldn’t impose such a system to further its own interests by perpetuating the status quo? After all, the Welsh Assembly was only intended as a sop to devolution, heading off the nationalists by promoting a fireless dragon with no powers to make laws or to raise taxation. (I know the Assembly is due to get greater powers but they fall well short of full executive government.)

In their desperation to get elected, politicians now ensure that there is no discernable difference between them. Rather than candidates standing on principles, the parties use sophisticated techniques to establish the issues that are least likely to be contentious. Thus they approach elections with limited social ambition and that, in a very large nutshell, is the reason for the situation we have now.

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Lack of Ferraris is an indicator of Welsh socio-economic plight under Labour

I once caught my friend Craig, who was at the time a card-carrying member of the Communist Party of Great Britain and a PR for London’s poorest borough, ogling a bright red Ferrari. When I mentioned that his adoration of this object seemed paradoxical given his political leanings, he answered that, on the contrary, he wanted a Ferrari for everyone. I proffered that a Ferrari everyone could afford would not be a Ferrari, but he was oblivious, lovingly running a hand over the curve of its wing.

After a decade of Labour government, Ferrari sales are at an all-time high but we are further away than ever from a time where everyone could afford one, especially in Wales. In the City of London, Ferraris are now almost de rigueur - indeed, those with serious bonus prospects hanker after the superior status inferred by a Lamborghini or Pagani - but you won’t see many exotic sports cars in the valleys.

Despite the economic boom that’s apparent in London and most other English cities - in Cardiff too, to a lesser degree - Wales is poorer than England, Scotland or Northern Ireland and the gulf is getting wider.

Much of this disparity has to do with the fact that we’re largely a working class nation and Labour is the party of the middle class. The Conservatives are the party of the middle class too (only more so), and so are the Liberal Democrats. Politically, we’re stuffed.

A central tenet of Labour’s socio-economic remodelling of British society has been to bring as many people as possible into the middle class. Under Blair, the middle class has become rich beyond its wildest dreams while the poor have fallen further behind. Rhodri Morgan’s assertion that the ‘representative Welsh family’ is £5,000 better off will probably come as a big surprise to most representative Welsh families.

When Welsh interests conflict with those of England, Wales loses. The destruction of the Capel Celyn community in North Wales to make way for Liverpool’s reservoir at Tryweryn in the 1950s is still perhaps the most dramatic example, but the recent closure of the Burberry factory in Treorchy turned out to be a particularly enlightening example since the ‘Britishness’ Burberry claimed its brand represents was clearly shown to be the essence of England – of Big Ben and Beckham and Buckingham Palace – not the post-industrial wasteland of the Rhondda valley.

So, under Labour, the English middle classes have got richer and the Welsh have got poorer. The sad thing is, whichever party wins the forthcoming elections, this inequality will continue unabated because, as it ever was, the power to make meaningful economic change rests in England, not in Wales.

Nothing in this article is meant to imply criticism of my oldest and dearest friend. I don’t amount to much more than a rabble-rousing troublemaker and I wouldn’t presume to pass judgement on a good person. However, it’s apposite to my premise for you to know that Craig, the son of a window cleaner from Llanelli, is now the executive editor of a well-known motoring website, based in London.

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